Bitcoin Options Show Short-Term Bullishness, Long-Term Risks

Recent analysis by Glassnode reveals that despite strong demand for Bitcoin call options in mid-January, the market continues to reflect asymmetric downside risk. The one-week 25-day skew shifted from bearish to neutral, and the put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, indicating bullish sentiment. However, longer-term skews remain bearish, with the one-month 25-day skew moving only slightly from 7% to 4%, and the three-month skew changing by less than 1.5%.

This suggests that while there is short-term bullish demand, it is not sustained across longer timeframes. Additionally, implied volatility of at-the-money options was sold during the price rise, with gamma sellers profiting, indicating that the recent price action lacks the characteristics of a sustainable breakout. For a true breakout, spot prices need to approach key levels, skew across all maturities should point higher, and volatility should be bought, conditions not met in the recent rally.