Bitcoin’s rally meets Iran-Israel war: Traders fear a 2022-style crash

Bitcoin [BTC] appears to be recovering, but the market mood tells a more complicated story. At press time, the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $72,791, gaining about 1.82% in the last 24 hours.

Its influence over the broader market is also growing, with Bitcoin dominance climbing to 59.83%, slowly approaching the important 60% level.

However, price movement is only part of the picture. While Bitcoin’s chart is showing signs of strength, many traders are still cautious after the sharp market drop seen in early February, as per Santiment’s Weighted Sentiment.

Will history repeat itself?

The fear in the market today comes from a pattern many traders remember from February 2022. When the Russia-Ukraine war began, Bitcoin did not crash immediately.

Instead, it jumped nearly 40%, as some investors treated it like digital gold and moved money out of traditional systems.

But that rally did not last. As the economic impact of the war became clear, the market reversed sharply, and Bitcoin eventually dropped about 67% from its highs.

Now, a similar concern is emerging in 2026. Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed some traders to think that Bitcoin could again rise in the short term as a hedge against global instability.

Some analysts believe this could drive BTC toward the $78,000–$80,000 range.

However, many are worried that such a move might not signal a strong bull market. Instead, it could be a temporary surge before a larger correction, especially if global economic conditions worsen.

Analysts are uncertain

Nic Puckrin, co-founder and lead analyst at Coin Bureau, commented on this situation in an email to AMBCrypto, 

“As markets open after a tumultuous weekend, there’s a great deal of fear that we may be staring down the barrel of a 2022-style energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

He argued, 

“Back then, Brent crude spiked above $120 a barrel, and inflation exploded. But it’s too early to say if the same scenario will play out.”

Echoing similar sentiments, analyst Ali Martinez added,

“Bitcoin may be setting up for a relief rally, and both on-chain data and technical structure support that possibility.”

Ali highlighted that spot ETFs are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, while Glassnode’s URPD indicator shows relatively thin supply above current price levels.

After reclaiming the $70,685 resistance, the supply between $72,000 and $81,000 appears limited, suggesting BTC could move more easily within this range if momentum builds.

Therefore, according to Ali, the next major resistance zones lie around $83,307 and $84,569.

The immediate reaction to the war on crypto

However, recent data from CryptoQuant showed how nearly $1.8 billion in sell volume had hit Bitcoin within a single hour of the U.S. attacking Iran.

Yet, despite this intense pressure, the asset managed to hold above the key $60,000 level, showing a degree of resilience during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.

Still, it is too early to draw firm conclusions.

Moving forward, the market could either be stabilizing and forming a new support level shaped by global uncertainty, or it may simply be pausing before a deeper correction similar to the 2022 downturn.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $60,000 remains the key signal traders will be watching.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin’s rally is happening without strong optimism, highlighting a market still recovering from February’s volatility.
• Memories of the 2022 crash are influencing trader psychology, making investors cautious even during price recovery.