Bitcoin breaks from the S&P 500 – Why THIS gap with Gold is ‘warning’

February 2026 feels very different from the panic of 2022. Back then, BTC was trading around $15,000, and many believed the crypto market was finished after major collapses and the long “crypto winter.”

Today, the story is completely different. Bitcoin is no longer fighting for survival.

Although Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $124,500 in October 2025, its current level near $68,000 tells a deeper story.

Instead of looking like a bubble that burst, Bitcoin now appears more stable and established.

With market dominance steady at 58.52%, it continues to hold more than half of the total crypto market, leaving less room for altcoins to shine. At the same time, traditional assets are also performing strongly.

Over the past five years, Gold has climbed nearly 199%, now trading above $5,181 per ounce. The S&P 500 has also surged almost 75% in just three years, reaching 6,946.

In simple terms, almost every major asset class is rising, but at different speeds.

Bitcoin vs traditional market

At the same time, the latest data from Santiment showed something very important that many overly bullish analysts are ignoring. For years, Bitcoin [BTC] has moved like a more extreme version of the S&P 500.

When stock markets went up, Bitcoin went up even faster. When markets crashed, Bitcoin fell even harder. But now, that relationship seems to be breaking.

Over the last six months, the S&P 500 has gained about 7%, and Gold has surged an incredible 51%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen 43% since late August. That is a huge gap.

Instead of moving together, these assets are clearly going in different directions. This is one of the weakest relationships between Bitcoin and stocks since the 2022 crash. 

Community adds weight to the sentiment

Justifying the situation, an X user noted, 

“This signals capital rotation opportunity into crypto amid Fed cuts. I recall late 2022 post-FTX, similar decorrelation led to BTC doubling next year. Currently, alts like $ETH could rally 20% on $BTC recoupling.”

Providing a unique perspective, another X user added, 

“The 51% surge in gold while Bitcoin remains 48% below its October peak proves that “digital gold” is failing its first major safe-haven test of 2026. “

He said the decoupling shows investors no longer view Bitcoin as “digital gold.” Despite rate cuts in late 2025, money hasn’t returned to BTC.

Instead, during trade tensions and uncertainty, investors are choosing gold, while treating Bitcoin like a risky tech stock that gets sold first when fears rise. 

Another X user also explained, 

Source: X

However, it’s important to note that historically, when a closely correlated asset sharply diverges like this, the disconnect rarely lasts for long.

What are the metrics suggesting?

While the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio has dropped, something Peter Schiff has happily pointed to as proof that investors are abandoning digital assets, the on-chain data tells a more balanced story.

Source: LongtermTrends

From mid-2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin saw a major shift in activity.

Spikes in Dormant Circulation and Age Consumed show that coins that had not moved for years suddenly became active.

At the same time, Mean Coin Age declined, confirming that long-term holders were no longer just sitting quietly; they started moving their coins again.

Source: Santiment

But as 2026 began, this activity changed in nature.

Instead of sharp, panic-like spikes that suggest fear selling, the movements became steadier and more periodic. This points to strategic redistribution rather than mass exits.

In simple terms, experienced holders do not appear to be abandoning Bitcoin; they seem to be adjusting their positions.

With crypto prices struggling while the S&P 500 continues to rise, some investors may be reshuffling their portfolios to manage risk and opportunity. 

Lastly, it’s not just Bitcoin – Ethereum [ETH] is also down this year, offering little stability. In DeFi, Total Value Locked has fallen by $20 billion, erasing months of growth and signaling reduced risk appetite. 

Final Summary

• This isn’t a collapse, it’s a stress test for Bitcoin’s role in a world where traditional markets are thriving.
• The sharp decoupling from Gold and the S&P 500 is unusual, but history suggests such extreme divergences rarely last forever.