Federal Reserve Validates Kalshi’s Predictive Accuracy

A Federal Reserve paper has validated Kalshi as a reliable tool for predicting macroeconomic figures, highlighting its accuracy over traditional surveys and forecasts. The report, titled “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” found that Kalshi’s prediction markets offer unique insights into variables such as GDP growth, core inflation, and unemployment, which are not available from other market-based distributions.

The paper emphasizes Kalshi’s ability to provide real-time responses to news events, making it a valuable complement to existing forecast tools in research and policy settings. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny from states like Tennessee and Massachusetts, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) maintains its jurisdiction over these platforms, reinforcing their legitimacy in the financial landscape.